Player projections provide a valuable framework, helping fantasy managers navigate the draft with some strategic direction. Yet, like any guidebook, they serve as a suggestion rather than a strict formula, leaving room for individual intuition and judgment. With that in mind, here are my top 20 draft picks for standard points leagues, ranked and explained.
Draft Slot 1: Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche
Even if he sees a slight dip in each standard category, MacKinnon is set to outperform nearly everyone (except maybe my second choice). It’s tough to pass on such a sure thing.
Draft Slot 2: Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
If not for MacKinnon’s Hart Trophy season in 2023-24, McDavid would top my list. After a 64-goal campaign in 2022-23, McDavid’s a safe bet to pile up points whether he’s scoring himself or setting up others.
Draft Slot 3: Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
While he may not hit the 100-assist mark again, Kucherov’s production, especially on the power play, will still impress. A 120-point season with plenty of power-play contributions would satisfy any fantasy manager.
Draft Slot 4: Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
Matthews’ durability is a concern, but his 69-goal potential, combined with shots, hits, and other stats, make him an irreplaceable asset if healthy.
Draft Slot 5: J.T. Miller, F, Vancouver Canucks
Miller’s blend of scoring and physicality, with over 40 power-play points last season, makes him a powerhouse. His steady performance since joining the Canucks puts to rest any doubts about his consistency.
Draft Slot 6: Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers
Expect Draisaitl to bounce back with 50 goals and 70 assists, especially if his power-play production climbs again, making him a solid first-round choice.
Draft Slot 7: Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche
A standout among defensemen, Makar’s consistency in scoring, assists, and power-play points secures his place in the first round as a uniquely valuable pick on the blue line.
Draft Slot 8: David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins
If Pastrnak can net 47 goals with Pavel Zacha, he’s primed for even more with Elias Lindholm. His shot volume and power-play presence make him an elite option.
Draft Slot 9: Mikko Rantanen, F, Colorado Avalanche
Rantanen’s durability and consistent production, with nearly 1.27 points per game since 2020-21, make him a strong first-round pick.
Draft Slot 10: Kirill Kaprizov, F, Minnesota Wild
Kaprizov quietly posted 2.9 fantasy points per game last season. With his dynamic play and prime age, a 50-goal, 60-assist season isn’t out of reach.
Draft Slot 11: Roman Josi, D, Nashville Predators
With most top forwards already selected, Josi is an excellent pick as a consistent all-around defenseman with high shooting numbers.
Draft Slot 12: Elias Pettersson, F, Vancouver Canucks
Coming off a challenging end to the last season, Pettersson is refocused. His chemistry with Jake DeBrusk and improved health should help him surpass 100 points again.
Draft Slot 13: Filip Forsberg, F, Nashville Predators
Underrated but reliable, Forsberg contributes across the board, and the Predators’ new-look power play should elevate his scoring further.
Draft Slot 14: Juuse Saros, G, Nashville Predators
As Nashville’s workhorse goalie, Saros is set to start upward of 60 games again, offering a high volume of saves and wins with the Predators’ offseason improvements.
Draft Slot 15: Jack Hughes, F, New Jersey Devils
Hughes’ ceiling is sky-high if he can stay healthy. His role as the Devils’ top center and strong shooting and power-play stats make him a top option.
Draft Slot 16: Artemi Panarin, F, New York Rangers
After an explosive season with 49 goals, Panarin’s chemistry with Trocheck and Lafreniere should keep his production steady. His minor injury in training camp is worth monitoring.
Draft Slot 17: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres
The new Sabres captain brings significant fantasy value. With strong shooting numbers and a 70-point ceiling, he rivals even the top-ranked defensemen.
Draft Slot 18: William Nylander, F, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nylander’s shift to center on the second line may impact his numbers slightly, but his offensive talent keeps him on the radar.
Draft Slot 19: Sidney Crosby, F, Pittsburgh Penguins
Crosby’s stats could get a boost from Evgeni Malkin’s slight resurgence, adding to his enduring fantasy value.
Draft Slot 20: Brady Tkachuk, F, Ottawa Senators
A wild card pick, Tkachuk’s aggressive playstyle adds value with hits, shots, and penalty minutes. If healthy, he’s also on track for 80+ points.
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